ASSESSMENTS

An Immigration Uptick Offers a Respite From Russia's Demographic Slide

Jul 29, 2019 | 09:00 GMT

This photo shows a woman crossing a street near downtown Moscow, Russia.

A woman crosses a street in Moscow, Russia.

(ALEXANDER NEMENOV/AFP/Getty Images)

Highlights

  • Early data from 2019 showed an increase in immigration to Russia and stable emigration from Russia.
  • Even if the numbers for the first four months of 2019 are accurate and reflect the start of a trend, this will do little to alter the downward forecast for Russian demographics in the coming decades. 
  • But while Russia cannot escape its negative demographic trends, if positive early figures from 2019 on migration are sustained, it can at least reduce the damage.

Demographics will play an outsized role in shaping Russia's economic and military future, with how many people it has determining everything from the size of its labor force to its tax base to its armed forces. Moscow's long struggle with low birth rates and high mortality rates are well known. Less well known is the impact of immigration and emigration on Russian demographics. While Russia cannot escape its negative demographic trends, if positive early figures from 2019 on migration are sustained, it can at least reduce the damage....

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