Russia Looks at Protests in the Baltics

Despite their strong Western integration, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia are vulnerable to Russian destabilization tactics via energy, trade, political and cultural links. It is highly unlikely that Russia would intervene militarily in Estonia, a NATO member, to protect ethnic Russians. More concerning than a military conflict with Russia is the prospect of trade blockades, a step that could quickly damage the Baltics economically, with little Western allies could do to help. But Moscow's most likely move is to use the ethnic Russian minority living in the Baltic states — a minority that constitutes more than a quarter of the population in Estonia and Latvia and around 6 percent in Lithuania — to attempt to destabilize the three countries.