Russia: Social Turbulence and Recollections of 1905

Russia will celebrate National Unity Day on Nov. 4, a commemoration of the expulsion of Polish invaders from Moscow in 1612. Russian President Vladimir Putin reinstated the holiday, which had been suspended for 88 years, in 2005 to promote Russian nationalism amid his efforts to consolidate political, economic and social control over the country. However, with ethnic and religious tensions increasing in Russia, the day now highlights the growing divisions in the country.

Stratfor has been tracking the stark social, political and demographic changes occurring across Russia, particularly the waves of instability seen in recent years. Tensions created by these shifts have occasionally sparked violence and challenges to the Kremlin. Meanwhile, economic pressure is building and the political system is experiencing atrophy. Changes such as these have occurred throughout Russian history, though one particular period — the years surrounding 1905, often considered a portent of the Russian Revolution in 1917 — was notably volatile because several tensions came to a head at once. Though there are notable differences between 1905 and the present day, the Imperial Russian government's response was similar to the strategies the Kremlin is using today as it attempts to prevent a major social uprising. History is not exactly repeating itself, but an examination of the situation in Russia at the turn of the 20th century provides insight into the recurrence of social upheaval in Russia and how the Kremlin may weather this one.