Russia Tightens Its Hold on Armenia

While the Iran nuclear agreement has undoubtedly changed the dynamics of the Middle East, few perhaps have considered how such a dramatic deal will affect the nearby Caucasus region, specifically Armenia. With Western sanctions soon to be lifted, Armenia has the potential to become a transit country for Iranian oil and natural gas destined for ports in Georgia. But emerging relations between Tehran and Yerevan on energy and infrastructure projects is the last thing Armenia's major patron — Russia — wants, especially if it is excluded from controlling shares in them. To this end, Russia has been increasing its economic presence in Armenia, while also pushing influential Armenians living in Russia to enter Armenian politics.

Thwarting Armenia's capacity as an oil transit country will further isolate it, as new regional energy projects continue to bypass Yerevan. But this is exactly what Moscow wants — to have Armenia dependent on Russia and to keep the former Soviet country firmly in its sphere of influence and away from the West. And, in the long run, Armenians based in Russia could become important contenders in Armenian politics, while also serving Moscow's enduring interests.