ASSESSMENTS

Russia's Lingering North Caucasus Problem

Dec 21, 2018 | 10:00 GMT

Activists in Magas, the capital of the Russian republic of Ingushetia, rally against a land swap deal with neighboring Chechnya on Oct. 9, 2018.

Activists in Magas, the capital of the Russian republic of Ingushetia, rally against a land swap deal with neighboring Chechnya on Oct. 9. Despite authorities reportedly setting up roadblocks to hinder demonstrators, thousands attended the rare protest in the North Caucasus.

(VASILY MAXIMOV/AFP/Getty Images)

Highlights

  • The North Caucasus is likely to see more protests and violence over land disputes between Chechnya and neighboring regions in the coming year.
  • The Kremlin's ability to preserve stability in the region will be tested, and tensions there have the potential to spill over into greater Russia.
  • Moscow will seek to contain problems in the North Caucasus through crackdowns and with concessions, but holding on to the loyalty of regional leaders and the general population could prove increasingly difficult.

The North Caucasus has long been a difficult region for Russia to control. Pockets of resistance have sprouted in the mountainous area between the Black and Caspian seas for centuries. That opposition runs from the Russian Empire's initial expansion into the North Caucasus in the early 18th century to the separatist conflicts in Chechnya at the end of the 20th century. After coming to power in 2000, Russian President Vladimir Putin helped restore relative calm to the region by granting greater autonomy to Chechnya, the home of two separatist wars. However, the actions of the Chechen president are now stirring up tensions with neighboring republics and threatening the stability that is crucial to Moscow....

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