ASSESSMENTS

Saudi Arabia and the UAE Consider the Cost of Israeli Ties

Oct 25, 2018 | 10:00 GMT

Medium-range ballistic missiles stand next to a portrait of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Tehran on Sept. 25, 2017, during commemorations marking the anniversary of the 1980s Iran-Iraq war. Iran's rise has fostered a situation in which Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates could work alongside Israel to present a united front against Tehran.

(ATTA KENARE/AFP/Getty Images)

Highlights

In the face of the Iranian threat, Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are increasingly likely to coordinate their actions against Tehran.
For Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, the domestic ramifications of collaboration with Israel might not be as deep as before, but the global backlash could hurt their standing throughout the Muslim world.
Fears of a potential backlash will convince the two Gulf countries to keep their relations with Israel under the surface, yet they could upgrade them if they feel the United States is failing to properly address the Iranian threat.

Threatened by Iran and emboldened by the United States, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are drawing closer to Israel, as the obstacles that have kept Riyadh and Abu Dhabi from contemplating such a radical move fall by the wayside. Indeed, for the first time in many years, Iranian influence has reached the Mediterranean Sea by land, prompting heightened worries in the Gulf states and Israel. But while the overtures between both camps are real, the nascent relationship remains subject to many of the old rules of Arab-Israeli dynamics. And as the Gulf's two biggest powers contemplate a formal transformation of their relations with Israel for pragmatic gain, they must calculate their willingness to endure domestic backlash, the ire of much of the Muslim world and the possibility that some royal rivals may not wholly support such an endeavor....

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