The population of Scotland voted against independence in a historic referendum that would have ended three centuries of political union with the United Kingdom. The "no" option got roughly 55 percent of the vote, while the "yes" option received around 45 percent. The results ended weeks of speculation and avoided many challenges and uncertainties for London.
One of the issues that Scottish independence would have brought to the fore is the predicted revenue from the North Sea oil and natural gas industry, which was estimated by Edinburgh to be capable of producing more than 50 billion pounds (around $81.6 billion) in tax revenues by 2018 (a figure disputed by Westminster). If Scotland had voted to devolve, the partition of legal liabilities, responsibilities, taxes and royalties from Scottish energy fields would have been highly contentious. It would have also been problematic that no maritime border between Scotland and England is recognized by international law, though there are two domestic maritime borders that represent a starting point for negotiations.
Dividing oil and natural gas rights would have been complicated, but the real challenge would have been teasing out the complex relationship between past oil revenue, division of national debt and aging oil and natural gas production facilities. Much of the United Kingdom Continental Shelf is in stark production decline, a fact that is particularly true for legacy fields such as the Forties and the Brent oil fields. With oil and natural gas production moving farther north, many facilities are reaching the end of their operational lifetimes and will soon need to be decommissioned.
Under current laws, the United Kingdom provides 50 percent tax breaks to oil and natural gas companies for decommissioning facilities, a costly process itself. If an energy company becomes insolvent, international law demands that host countries pay for decommission. For the United Kingdom this liability is manageable, though not ideal; for an independent Scotland it would have been a much heavier burden.
Though Scotland and Britain will not immediately have to divvy up the energy sector, the issue is far from over. Almost half of the population of Scotland voted for independence, and this sentiment will not disappear in the long term. Moreover, a far greater portion of the Scottish constituency supports more autonomy, which will be a demand that will define future U.K. politics.
