ASSESSMENTS

The Security Implications of Sudan's Ongoing Civil War

Nov 13, 2024 | 16:06 GMT

Sudanese army soldiers patrol an area in Khartoum on Nov. 3, 2024.
Sudanese army soldiers patrol an area in Khartoum on Nov. 3, 2024.

(AMAURY FALT-BROWN/AFP via Getty Images)

Efforts to resolve Sudan's conflict are hindered by competing international interests, making a peace deal unlikely and risking destabilization in neighboring South Sudan and Chad through ethnic violence and arms proliferation, while creating a power vacuum that could enable jihadist groups to exploit deteriorating socio-economic conditions. On Oct. 25, the Rapid Support Forces paramilitary group, or RSF, was accused of killing at least 124 people in a village in the east-central state of Gezira amid the group's ongoing conflict with the Sudanese Armed Forces, or SAF. The violent raid occurred after a high-ranking RSF officer surrendered to the SAF, which prompted the RSF to retaliate by killing and detaining civilians in his home area, displacing thousands of civilians in the process. These events are part of the larger civil war in Sudan that broke out on April 15, 2023, primarily driven by power struggles between two rival military factions: the...

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