Turkmenistan has some of the largest natural gas reserves in the world, but as a landlocked country it has struggled to transport its reserves to market. Now, however, Turkmen leaders are hoping a new pipeline will expand the country's export options. On Dec. 13, leaders from Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India met in Turkmenistan to break ground on the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline. More than 25 years in the making, 1,800 kilometers (about 1,100 miles) long and costing an estimated $10 billion, the pipeline is scheduled to begin operations in late 2019 and will have a capacity of 33 billion cubic meters per year.
Even with the substantial amount of funding that has already been committed, the single most important factor during the development and construction phase of the project will be the security situation in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Turkmenistan has petitioned support from the United States and NATO to help protect the pipeline. But although Pentagon officials have expressed their interest in working with Turkmenistan, they have indicated it will be difficult to do so because of the country's official policy of neutrality.
Instead, much of the security for the project is coming from the Afghan and Pakistani governments themselves. Turkmenistan, after all, has frequently coordinated with the political and security leadership in both countries, and Afghanistan has already pledged to allocate 5,000-7,000 security forces, likely from the Afghan National Army, to protect construction crews working on its portion of the pipeline. Pakistan, too, has committed to ensuring security during construction, specifically in Balochistan. And though, so far, there are no clear plans for security once TAPI is up and running, at that point there will be less of a security risk for the underground pipeline.
Ultimately, to protect the pipeline during construction, the consortium will need to engage with local power brokers — not an insurmountable task. Typically, projects that bring value into a country face less opposition than those seeking to exploit resources for export, so the local Taliban elements will likely tolerate the project as long as their strategic interests are not threatened. Indeed, TAPI is unlikely to attract the ire of local tribal leaders unless it partners with Western investors.
