Echoes of the Cold War are increasingly emerging today. Nowhere is that trend toward more clandestine activities, espionage and subterfuge more apparent than the unfolding drama in the United Kingdom surrounding the poisoning of former Russian intelligence officer Sergei Skripal and his daughter.
For this episode of the Stratfor Podcast, we sit down with Chief Security Officer Fred Burton for his unique perspective on the Kremlin’s intelligence apparatus today and the capacity for Western nations to respond.
Related Reading
How the U.S. Could Shield Sergei Skripal From the Kremlin’s Revenge by Fred Burton
Echoes of the Cold War, a collection of Stratfor Worldview analysis
The Long Arm of Russian Intelligence by Scott Stewart
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Transcript
Eugene Chausovsky [00:00:00] Hello, I'm Eugene Chausovsky, a Senior Eurasia Analyst at Stratfor, and this podcast is brought to you by Stratfor Worldview, the world's leading geopolitical intelligence platform. Individual, team, and enterprise memberships are available at worldview.stratfor.com/subscribe.
Fred Burton [00:00:27] I find it highly doubtful that the Skripals were the only defectors that were looked at. That's going to be the big analytical question behind the scenes for MI5. Who else was on that list that perhaps was looked at and we never saw the bad guys watching them?
Ben Sheen [00:00:54] Welcome to the Stratfor Podcast focused on geopolitics and world affairs from Stratfor.com. I'm your host, Ben Sheen. Amid reports of wide-spread Russian spying on expatriots and dissidents in the United States and in the United Kingdom, as well as the unfolding drama surrounding the attempted assassination of former Russian Intelligence Agent, Sergei Skripal and his daughter in London, we sit down with Stratfor Chief Security Officer, Fred Burton for his unique perspective on the Kremlin's intelligence apparatus today and the capacity for Western agencies to respond. Thank you for joining us. Here at Stratfor, one of the ways in which we break down the world is around a series of themes and topics, and these are effectively ways in which we conceptualize some of the bigger issues we encounter when looking at, analyzing the international system. One of these themes is simply called Echoes of the Cold War, and it's the way in which we're seeing history somewhat repeat itself as we move back to this period of great power corporation. Now, when we think of the Cold War, a big aspect of that was very much the game of espionage and subterfuge and this clandestine battle between great powers. With me today in the studio is Fred Burton to talk a little bit about what we're seeing and a possible reemergence of that trend specifically centered around, for example, the recent case of former Russian double agent, Sergei Skripal, who was potentially targeted for assassination by the Russians. Fred, some of the stuff we're seeing here,
Ben Sheen [00:02:29] if you'll pardon the phrase, isn't quite cricket. What are these developments we're seeing in this picture?
Fred Burton [00:02:35] Certainly the attempted assassination by the Skripals father and the daughter on British soil raises the whole spectre of the lengths that the Russian Intelligence Service will go to just to not only hunt down those kinds of persons that have betrayed mother Russia, but also with that clear kind of signal that resonates to any others that are trying to or thinking about or on the fence or might be cooperating with either MI6 and/or the CIA or any Western intelligence service. Those kinds of actions no doubt resonate through the entire intelligence community, especially when you start thinking about the shadow wars between Russia, the U.K., and the United States.
Ben Sheen [00:03:30] That's an important thing to mention as well is that Sergei himself, he was traded as part of a spy-swap, an exchange, so he effectively, don't get me wrong, I'm sure he still lives in a degree of paranoia, but that was legit and above board, and yet something like this can still happen. Now, clearly, you've experienced this game first hand, Fred. What sort of signal does this send for individuals who have effectively thought they've put their previous life with the Russian intelligence behind them only to find it lurking around the next corner?
Fred Burton [00:04:01] I can't imagine, not only that paranoia, but the fear that not only could they be watching me, which you might have rationalized that, the revenge factor, the long reach of the Russian FSB, the KGB will come after me, but you don't think about them perhaps also trying to go after your family or trying to kill your loved ones. That's the kind of frightening aspect from a psychological perspective that this was very purposeful and that not only when you betray our county, there's a hell of a price to be paid. We will find you, and we will extract a pound of flesh. There will be vengeance for your betrayal, therefore you better not be thinking about this if you're still back at Moscow Center or if you are those intelligence officers either operating in London or elsewhere in the world, and you're thinking about becoming an asset of the British intelligence service or the American CIA.
Ben Sheen [00:05:08] Absolutely, and as we've seen, London and the United Kingdom has become quite a popular destination over the years for individuals coming from Russia, be they exchanges in—
Fred Burton [00:05:18] A lot of Russian money there.
Ben Sheen [00:05:19] Absolutely, and a lot of Russian interests. There's a big Russian expat community there.
Fred Burton [00:05:23] Right.
Ben Sheen [00:05:24] And it seems that as a result, that's attracted the attention of the Russian intelligence services. Reportedly, there have been more Russian agents deployed to London in recent years than there were during the Cold War, which is an alarming statistic especially if you're trying to leave that life behind.
Fred Burton [00:05:39] Without a doubt. And let's not lose sight of the fact that MI5, Scotland Yard, the British Intelligence Service are under extraordinary amount of pressure to prevent acts of terrorism on the streets of London, therefore, much like what happened to the United States and to the FBI after 911, your entire counter-intelligence mission begins to slip a little bit because you become laser fixated and focused on trying to prevent the next act of terror, therefore it becomes a juggling match with what is more of a priority, to keep track on a few old retired spies, perhaps, or trying to do surveillance on suspected jihadis that are running around the street that might be planning the next serious act of terror? It's a tough position to be in, and it's almost a lose-lose kind of scenario for the British security services when you think about this because there are no good options there.
Ben Sheen [00:06:42] That's a good point. And in a world of finite resources, where do you put your priorities? And actually, what we've seen as a result of this is the United States actually reach out and offer a degree of protection to the Skripals as well in the event that they should potentially want to relocate.
Fred Burton [00:06:55] Yes, and I thought that was fascinating, and that is one of the aspects that I thought would be interesting for our listeners to understand would be who would protect the Skripals if, in fact, the British government asked us to lend a hand and help protect them? At least from my experience, there would be three principal players involved here, Ben. The first would be the United States Marshall Services, the Witness Security Program. They do a wonderful job. They've got terrorists and mobsters and all kinds of other organized crime informants embedded into the program, and they never ever have lost anybody in the history of the program. They've got a long, storied history of protecting people, but their rules are very draconian. They're very forceful, and you play by their rules, or they'll boot you out. I've experienced that first hand, not as a witness, but watch them take informants and send them on their way if they don't play by the rules. The second entity would certainly be the CIA. A lot of folks don't realize that they do have a domestic security kind of component, and they are fully capable of protecting the Skripals if in fact that was a decision that would be made. And then the third would be the FBI. The FBI certainly would also have those kinds of resources to keep track of them. But if I step back and look at this, Ben, kind of like we were chatting off the air before this podcast was that the benefit that we have here in the United States is that sheer geography. The ability to place the Skripals in a location
Fred Burton [00:08:41] where it would be extraordinarily difficult, I'm not saying impossible, but it would be extraordinarily difficult for the Russian Intelligence Services to hunt him down.
Ben Sheen [00:08:51] And I think it's important to note as well that although what we're seeing here is a changing paradigm, is that again the U.K. has a lot of mechanisms for protection analogous to what the U.S. has—
Fred Burton [00:09:00] Quite good, too.
Ben Sheen [00:09:02] Absolutely, on a smaller scale, as well. But certainly we're seeing this changing paradigm where as individuals who perhaps might have thought they were safe might not be anymore. As protection potentially wouldn't be required before, certainly people are going to be thinking twice, especially if they have a reason to be on Valdmir Putin's personal hit list, if you like.
Fred Burton [00:09:19] Yeah, I can't imagine. If you think about this, too, from just an operational perspective, the day that the Skripals were poisoned, think about the reaction behind the scenes inside the counter-intelligence divisions of MI5 and Scotland Yard. They're going to have to do very quick and rapid threat assessments on every other defector that they might have on U.K. soil. They're going to have to start assigning counter-surveillance assets on them, put close protection teams in place, until the dust settles because you don't know who else could perhaps be targeted. One of the other variables here that we still don't know the answer to, is I find it highly doubtful that the Skripals were the only defectors that were looked at, that whoever put these plans in place probably also looked at other potential target sets, and a decision was made by Moscow Center or whoever was operationally in charge of calling the shots to go after them. That's going to be the big analytical question behind the scenes for MI5, too, is who else was on that list that perhaps was looked at, and we never saw the bad guys watching them?
Ben Sheen [00:10:34] Beyond the surveillance aspect, it's important to note the type of method that was employed here because certainly in the past, we've seen deaths of Russian expatriots under suspicious circumstances where there might have been, let's just say, a little bit more up close and personal, how their demise was affected, whereas in the case of Sergei and his daughter, what we actually saw here was the use of a very specific chemical agent. It was almost like dropping a calling card, if you will.
Fred Burton [00:11:02] Yeah.
Ben Sheen [00:11:03] Certainly that act that the intent behind the type of system that was used, that speaks volumes in many respects, doesn't it?
Fred Burton [00:11:09] Clearly, and I guarantee you that behind the scenes, between MI6 and the CIA and the FBI and MI5, the wires were burning up trying to evaluate not only exactly what toxin was used to carry out the assassination attempt, but also just trying to figure out who else might have been looked at and who else might be in play. Those first few hours, you have no doubt an organization like MI5 that's setting back, thinking, "Oh my goodness, first let's find all of our other defectors. Let's go out and make notifications. We need to heavy up on the security. We need to keep watch." Then you also got to think about the cables burning up at the Russian embassy there in London, and surveillance logs being looked at, and trying to map couriers coming in and out of the country. Then compound the problem with the expat community that's already in play in London, and as you're trying to fare it out, maybe illegals or sleeper agents that were there, you've got a major investigation here. There's no doubt in my mind that for 72 hours after this events, you're just trying to manage that chaos, much like you're trying to manage a terrorist crime scene.
Ben Sheen [00:12:35] Fred, you're absolutely right. It's a really important way to consider this as well because there is a lot happening below the surface that isn't widely know, isn't widely reported. And yet there are also above the surface implications especially in the diplomatic and the political realm, such as London making the decision to expel a lot of Russian diplomats,
Fred Burton [00:12:53] Right.
Ben Sheen [00:12:54] or declared intelligence officials. And as you mentioned before, these are the ones that are known and overt. And clearly, Russia isn't going to suddenly upsticks and move out. They're going to maintain a clandestine presence regardless. But already you saw a lot of other countries follow suit. As we can see, there is this sort of tit-for-tat back and forth, and these actions do have repercussions. What do you think, and obviously this is a very hard subject to second guess, but how do you see this playing out in the next few years as we see these tensions, if anything, worsen between the West and Russia?
Fred Burton [00:13:24] We won't see this stop. This is part of Russian foreign policy initiatives to carry out these kinds of actions on foreign soil. I think the Cold War never ended. This is a perfect example of that, Ben. I would not be surprised to see additional attempts going forward. Over the next few months, it's going to be very difficult because all those protective security moves and shifts have already been taken. Defectors have enhanced patrol coverage, enhanced watch, over watch on those individuals that are already in the U.S. and U.K. and Australian hands, for example. You're going to have an uptick in that kind of activity, but you also are going to have a tremendous amount of lessons learned from this, and let's be clear here. It's a good thing they both lived, obviously, so you're going to have people, victims that you can debrief. You're going to have a lot of lessons learned here that's going to allow the security services of the Western nations to huddle and think about how they protect defectors going forward with an eye towards, hopefully, never letting this happen again, but I'm not optimistic that that's not going to happen.
Ben Sheen [00:14:46] Absolutely. We've seen this round of the game get played, and certainly there will be subsequent rounds to follow.
Fred Burton [00:14:52] No doubt.
Ben Sheen [00:14:53] Fred, thank you so much for joining me today. It's always a pleasure having you on the podcast.
Fred Burton [00:14:56] Thank you, Ben.
Ben Sheen [00:15:04] That wraps up this episode of the Stratfor Podcast. If you'd like to read more on the topic, be sure to check out Fred Burton's recent assessment on how the U.S. could shield Sergei Skripal from the Kremlin's revenge on Stratfor Worldview. We'll include a link in the show notes along with a link to our border analyses collected under the theme Echoes of the Cold War. If you're not already a Worldview member, you could learn more about individual, team, and enterprise access at worldview.stratfor.com/subscribe. Worldview members can share their perspective on the current geopolitical tension between Russia and the West and even engage with Stratfor analysts, editors, and contributors in our members-only forum. A full transcript of this conversation with Fred Burton will also be available on our podcast page. That's at worldview.stratfor.com/media/podcasts. For more geopolitical intelligence, analysis, and forecasting to reveal the underlying significance and future implications of emerging world events, follow us on Twitter @Stratfor.
