It Will Take More Than the Soleimani Crisis to Cause Lasting Oil Price Spikes

The recent flare-up in the Middle East between the United States and Iran highlights a structural shift in how the oil market reacts to political risks. The market has shifted to a baseline with a modestly bearish outlook and a reluctance to price in risk in the manner it previously has. But even so, the potential exists for a massive price move in the less probable (but still very plausible) event of a major and lasting disruption....