Assessments

It Will Take More Than the Soleimani Crisis to Cause Lasting Oil Price Spikes

Greg Priddy
Director, Global Energy and Middle East, Stratfor
Jan 17, 2020 | 09:30 GMT
OPEC's logo is seen at the organization's headquarters on Sept. 26, 2019.

OPEC's logo is seen at the organization's headquarters on Sept. 26, 2019. The killing of Qassem Soleimani didn't especially hit oil prices, but unresolved U.S.-Iranian tensions could.

(OMAR MARQUES/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)

The recent flare-up in the Middle East between the United States and Iran highlights a structural shift in how the oil market reacts to political risks. The market has shifted to a baseline with a modestly bearish outlook and a reluctance to price in risk in the manner it previously has. But even so, the potential exists for a massive price move in the less probable (but still very plausible) event of a major and lasting disruption....

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