OPEC's logo is seen at the organization's headquarters on Sept. 26, 2019. The killing of Qassem Soleimani didn't especially hit oil prices, but unresolved U.S.-Iranian tensions could.
The recent flare-up in the Middle East between the United States and Iran highlights a structural shift in how the oil market reacts to political risks. The market has shifted to a baseline with a modestly bearish outlook and a reluctance to price in risk in the manner it previously has. But even so, the potential exists for a massive price move in the less probable (but still very plausible) event of a major and lasting disruption....
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