ASSESSMENTS

In Somali Capital, Security Progress and Persistent Threats

Jul 3, 2013 | 10:30 GMT

Somali police and soldiers at a damaged U.N. compound in Mogadishu on June 19.

(MOHAMED ABDIWAHAB/AFP/Getty Images)

Summary

Security operations by the Somali military and international peacekeeping operations in Mogadishu have enabled the country's young government to expand control of the capital in recent months. The tempo of major attacks by hard-line Islamist militia al Shabaab has slowed considerably since the beginning of 2013, indicating a modest decline in the group's capabilities, and none of the group's recent operations have disrupted government activities significantly in Mogadishu or caused a strategic shift in peacekeeping operations.

However, al Shabaab still poses a threat to conduct guerrilla-style hit-and-run assaults in the capital. While the government has established high-security zones around key facilities in the city, the militants have found success with elaborate, manpower-intensive attacks on softer targets in recent months. Thus, al Shabaab will seek to concentrate its limited resources by organizing fewer yet more complicated operations that exploit the security vulnerabilities still widespread in Mogadishu.

Islamist militia al Shabaab has been organizing fewer yet more elaborate operations focusing on soft targets. ...

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