Somalia: A Situation Report

Somalia's political situation remains confusing, but it is gradually returning to its pre-colonial state when political activity was based on organized clan rule. Somalia actually has a lot of preconditions for successful independent statehood. Its people share a common culture, speak roughly the same language and practice the Sunni form of Islam. The pattern of life in Somalia, however, has dictated that the clans remain the strongest force in the country. Most Somalis have traditionally been nomadic herders operating in family groups. The relative lack of agriculture in all but southern Somalia means that physical location has not been the primary factor determining loyalties. Rather, the family group has traditionally been central to Somali political activity and the elders of tribes and clans have formed the political elite of the country. There are six major clans and numerous sub-clans that make up the various political entities in the former state of Somalia. At times, outside forces, most notably Ethiopia and Eritrea, have assisted one clan against another as it suited their needs. Some clans have also helped their kinsmen in the Ogaden region of Ethiopia in their struggle against Addis Ababa. It is beyond the scope of this report to go into the activities of every possible sub-clan in these conflicts, so we have focused on those clans and sub-clans capable of influencing the future of the country as a whole. I. Issaq: (Sub-clans: Habar Yoonis, Habar Awal, Habar Tol Jaalo, Habar Jaalo, Iidagale) This group is headed by Mohammed Ibrahim Egal, who was prime minister of all of Somalia between 1967 and 1969. It is based in the northwest part of the country bordering Djibouti. The Issaq clan's insurrection was key to the fall of Mohammed Siad Barre in 1991. Egal subsequently declared independence based on the old British colony of Somaliland. The Issaq have been able to implement relative stability in their area of the country. There are still some problems along the disputed border with Puntland (see below) but Egal has been able to set up most governmental structures and fields a standing army of 15,000 men armed with some heavy equipment. Somaliland relies on good relations with Ethiopia to allow Somali herdsmen to cross from grazing lands in the highlands of northern Ethiopia to the port of Berbera, but has tried to stay above conflicts in the rest of Somalia. II. Dir: (Sub-clans: Gadabursi, Iise) This clan is the junior partner in the Somaliland government and generally occupies southern areas of that region along the border with Ethiopia. Its forces are included with the Somaliland forces listed above. III. Darood: (Sub-clans: Ogaden, Majeerteen, Mareehan, Dulbahante, Warsangali, Yuusuf, Kablalah) This diffuse faction has the greatest geographical reach of all of the Somali clans but it is heavily divided. Various factions of the clan are the primary forces in the southern "state" of Jubaland as well as the northern "state" of Puntland. There is also a significant community in eastern Ethiopia. In the south, General Omar Mohammed Hersi "Morgan," a former crony of Barre, set up Jubaland in 1998 but has since been driven from his main base at Kismayo by forces of the Hawiye clan. Two other Darood sub-clans, the Mareehan and Ogaden based in Gedo under the command of General Omar Haji Mohammed and Colonel Omar Jess, respectively, were also involved in the takeover of Kismayo. These sub-clans reportedly receive aid from Eritrea. General Morgan's Majeerteen sub-clan has received support from Ethiopia. Another faction of the Marheehan clan under a General "Gebiyou" has launched attacks on General Omar's rear in Gedo province, also reportedly with Ethiopian aid. Both General Omar and General Morgan can reportedly muster about 2,000-3,000 fighters at any given time. In the north, Darood clans occupy the eastern border regions of Somaliland and control the government in Puntland. The "President" of Puntland Colonel Abdullahi Yusuf is generally thought to enjoy Ethiopian support. Puntland, its border dispute with Somaliland aside, is generally stable and controls the strategic area at the tip of the Horn of Africa. It is bordered to the south by areas under Hawiye clan control and to the west by Somaliland. It is unknown precisely how many fighters have allied themselves with the Puntland government, but Colonel Yusuf's Somali Salvation Democratic Front is known to control about 3,000 men. IV. Hawiye: (Sub-clans: Habar Gidir, Abgaal, Biyamaal, Hawaadle, Murursade, Ujuuraan) The Hawiye clan gets the most international attention because its various factions occupy the capital of Mogadishu. Its leadership is primarily split between the Habar Gidir sub-clan under Hussein Mohammed Aideed and the Abgaal clan under Ali Mahdi Mohammed. The primary areas of Hawiye control are in the central regions of the country in an area stretching from Puntland to Rahanwayn and Digil agricultural areas along the Ethiopian border and to Darood areas in Jubaland along the coast. Aideed has been the most active of the sub-clan leaders. His forces took Kismayo from General Morgan in July 1999. They have been fighting Rahanwayn and Digil forces in that agricultural region since 1995, when Aideed's father, Mohammed Farah Aideed, occupied key towns including Baidoa and Oddur. Mogadishu is split between Hussein's forces and those of the more powerful Ali Mahdi. Aideed has openly courted support from Eritrea and Libya and has also reportedly received aid from Uganda. He claims to have a force of 10,000 militia spread over his areas of control. He is also allied with approximately 700 Oromo fighters which had a base at Corriolei, outside Mogadishu, and with various Darood factions in the south numbering about 3,000 men (see above). Aideed's forces are also referred to as the United Somali Congress and the Somali National Alliance. Aideed's principal rival is Ali Mahdi Mohammed of the Abgaal sub-clan. This rivalry dates back to the 1980s when Farah Aideed and Ali Mahdi were the chief opponents of the Barre regime. Ali Mahdi's forces number about 10,000 fighters and he controls much of northern Mogadishu. With the exception of battling Aideed's forces in Mogadishu, Ali Mahdi seems to be content with largely defensive operations. He reportedly receives aid from Ethiopia. Ali Mahdi also heads a political organization called the National Salvation Council which has proclaimed him "President" of Somalia. Aideed has also claimed the presidency at various times. V. Rahanwayn and Digil: The final two main clans in Somalia are unlike any of the other clans in that they have taken up an agricultural lifestyle and so are tied to a specific region. They occupy most of Bakool and Bay provinces northwest of Mogadishu and bordering on Ethiopia. During the first part of Somalia's civil war these groups were relatively quiet. Indeed, much of their land was taken over by the Habar Gidir clan (see above) in 1995. Over the next several years there was sporadic resistance to the Mogadishu-based Habar Gidir (a sub-clan of the Hawiye), but in 1998 Ethiopia began supporting the two clans when it became apparent that the Habar Gidir was receiving aid from Eritrea. Since then the Rahanwayn Resistance Army and the Digil Salvation Army have retaken most of the two provinces and have occasionally threatened Mogadishu itself. The Malak (Sultan) of the Rahanwayn has indicated that the group intends to drive the Habar Gidir from the ports of Merca and Baraawe on the coast, ostensibly so that they will be able to export their crops. The combined forces of these two groups, which may include some Ethiopian soldiers, is estimated around 3,000 men. Ethiopia has reportedly supplied them with artillery and air support. Xinhua reported on August 7 that Ethiopia had withdrawn its support for these two groups. These reports are unconfirmed but they may be linked to the Ethiopian-Eritrean peace process.