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South Africa Faces a Downward Spiral

undefined and Sub-Saharan Africa Analyst

Stephen Rakowski

Sub-Saharan Africa Analyst, Stratfor

Sep 26, 2019 | 09:00 GMT

South African law enforcement officers clash with looters during xenophobic violence and looting on Sept. 2, 2019, in Johannesburg. Xenophobic violence is just one of the myriad problems facing South Africa.

(THULANI MBELE/Sowetan/Gallo Images via Getty Images)

Highlights

Beset by infighting, the ruling African National Congress is incapable of effectively tackling the country's worsening economic and social situation.
Those problems will drive more highly skilled individuals to emigrate, robbing the country of productive workers and tax revenue in the years ahead.
Deepening economic malaise and internal fissures will accelerate the erosion of the ANC's once-dominant electoral position, possibly opening the door to more extreme parties, with serious policy implications.
As South Africa struggles to get its house in order, its influence over the rest of southern Africa will wane.

"We are sorry for what happened," South African President Cyril Ramaphosa told a group of workers earlier this month in Durban. "Our image, our standing and our integrity [were] negatively affected." Ramaphosa offered the heartfelt mea culpa following yet another wave of xenophobic riots across South Africa, yet presidential apologies are unlikely to stanch more violence directed against foreigners there -- or cure the deeper malaise that drives the unrest. That's because successive governments in Pretoria have failed to foster essential economic growth in South Africa, which posted an eye-popping unemployment rate of 29 percent earlier this year. Every week, thousands of its citizens are forced into unemployment or underemployment in the extensive black market. ...

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