ASSESSMENTS

South Africa's Leader Hopes for a Payoff on His Gamble

Sep 7, 2018 | 09:00 GMT

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa attends the 10th BRICS summit on July 26 in Johannesburg.

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa attends the 10th BRICS summit on July 26 in Johannesburg. Ramaphosa has difficult choices to make as he attempts to guide the African National Congress party to electoral victory next year.

(THEMBA HADEBE/AFP/Getty Images)

Highlights

  • With problems such as high unemployment, corruption, declining education standards, crumbling infrastructure and frequent strikes, South Africa's economy is unlikely to improve before elections in 2019.
  • Economic pressure will force President Cyril Ramaphosa to implement populist measures, such as land expropriation without compensation, to shore up support for the ruling African National Congress party ahead of the polls.
  • Despite the populist turn, South Africa will continue anti-corruption efforts at state-owned enterprises and other institutions, helping to clamp down on mismanagement and waste.

Since coming to power in early 2018, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa has gone to great lengths to distance himself from his controversial predecessor, Jacob Zuma. By cracking down on graft and making overtures to the business community and foreign investors, Ramaphosa's reign has offered a notable departure from the populist and corruption-tainted Zuma. Still, Ramaphosa has -- much to his chagrin -- continued the legacy of his predecessor on one front by failing to improve South Africa's lackluster economy. The uninspiring economic situation would create a headache for any leader -– particularly one whose country will hold crucial elections within the next year. With no lift for the economy, Ramaphosa might have to play the populist card at the expense of hurting investor confidence if he is to head off challengers to the ruling African National Congress party and win next year's polls....

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