ASSESSMENTS

Southeast Asia Heads to the Polls

Mar 7, 2018 | 08:00 GMT

Indonesians in 171 jurisdictions will go to the ballot box on June 27.

Indonesian President Joko Widodo (right) installs Air Chief Marshal Hadi Tjahjanto as head of the armed forces at the presidential palace in Jakarta on Dec. 8, 2017. Tjahjanto has since reshuffled several key positions to put his own stalwarts in place and signaled that the military backs the president.

(GAGAH ADHAPUTRA/AFP/Getty Images)

Highlights

  • Malaysia's monolithic United Malays National Organization will attempt to win back ground from rising opposition forces intent on breaking its decades-old grip on power. 
  • Some 171 local elections will lay the groundwork for a national vote in Indonesia next year that will determine the fate of President Joko Widodo, who is courting the Islamic establishment and military leaders to shore up his chances.
  • In Cambodia, the long-ruling Cambodian People's Party will face no true challengers in national elections — but long-term economic trends might undermine its hold on power.

Throughout the 20th century, internal conflict ripped apart Southeast Asia again and again. Thanks in part to growing economic prosperity and the end of the Cold War, however, stability has largely replaced the chaos of yesteryear. But the biggest reason for this relative success story is the strength of certain monolithic institutions in each country that have managed crises and prevented any return to disorder. Without question, there have been disruptions to the calm, periods of unrest and notable outliers (such as Myanmar), but the parties, monarchies and militaries that have directed many countries in Southeast Asia have largely retained internal cohesion. The massive economic and demographic shifts that make the region a bright spot in global growth have tested these institutions time and again -- and forced them to improvise and adapt. Now, a series of elections over the next six months will test the long-term durability of these...

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