ASSESSMENTS
Southern Europe’s COVID-19 Crisis Is Just Beginning
![undefined and Director of Analysis at RANE](https://www.stratfor.com/sites/default/files/profiles/photos/Adriano-Bosoni.jpg)
Apr 13, 2020 | 10:00 GMT
![A man wearing a protective mask walks in the empty square in front of a cathedral in Locri, Italy, on April 7, 2020.](https://worldview.stratfor.com/sites/default/files/styles/2x1_full/public/GettyImages-1209379618.jpg?itok=2b7b8BMM)
A man wearing a surgical mask walks in an empty square in front of a cathedral in Locri, Italy, on April 7, 2020. As of April 10, Italy had reported 143,626 COVID-19 cases with 28,470 deaths.
(GIANLUCA CHININEA/AFP via Getty Images)
Highlights
- Southern Europe will emerge from the COVID-19 health crisis with deep recessions and high unemployment that governments will struggle to revert.
- The stimulus measures to cope with the pandemic will lead to a significant worsening of fiscal deficits and public debt, which could trigger a debt crisis in Southern Europe if markets believe the situation is not sustainable.
- Governments will eventually have to introduce unpopular austerity measures to reduce their deficits, which will create a fertile ground for the emergence of anti-establishment and nationalist political forces.
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