ASSESSMENTS

Special Report: Brazil's Battle Against Drug Traffickers

Feb 8, 2011 | 19:21 GMT

STRATFOR

Summary

In a continued pacification campaign to wrest control of Rio de Janeiro's hillsides from drug trafficking groups, Brazilian security forces occupied nine favelas in northern Rio in less than two hours Feb. 6. Though on the surface it appears Rio police are making rapid headway in their counternarcotics efforts, the operations are contributing primarily to the displacement, not removal, of major drug trafficking groups. If and when the state expands its offensive to Rocinha, a large cluster of favelas where most drug traffickers have fled, the backlash is likely to be fierce. Brazil's decision to take on that fight or reach an accommodation with the main criminal groups will be heavily influenced by its lack of resources and tight timeline before it falls under the global spotlight for the 2014 World Cup and 2016 Summer Olympics.

Brazil, short on time and resources, may be nearing a redline in its offensive against drug trafficking groups in Rio de Janeiro. (With STRATFOR map and exclusive photos)...

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