The Splintering of Colombia's AUC

Disarmament talks between Colombian President Alvaro Uribe Velez and the United Self-Defense Forces of Colombia (AUC) paramilitary organization are breaking down, as STRATFOR predicted more than a year ago. The talks are failing because the U.S. government, which is not a participant, refuses to make concessions to the AUC, such as dropping demands for the arrest and extradition of AUC leaders. Meanwhile, the failure to achieve progress is accelerating the AUC's fragmentation into smaller local groups funded in many cases by drug traffickers. This means the Colombian conflict will spread territorially across most of the country in coming years, creating opportunities and headaches for the Colombian government.