Status of Kenya's Incursion into Somalia

Kenya appears to have made significant initial progress in an offensive targeting al Shabaab in southern Somalia, advancing toward the militant group's stronghold in Kismayo. It is unclear whether Kenyan forces intend to eventually take the port city, but Kismayo is key to al Shabaab's supply lines and revenue streams, and the group has given indications that it may deploy additional fighters to Afmadow, a town along the route of Kenyan forces' main advance. However, even if the group does put up unexpectedly strong resistance in Afmadow, it is unlikely to enter a conventional battle with the far better-equipped Kenyan military force. Al Shabaab will likely make a strategic retreat if it finds itself overwhelmed, to prevent itself from absorbing a crippling blow.