ASSESSMENTS

The Strategic Risks of Europe's Pivot to U.S. LNG

Feb 12, 2026 | 21:20 GMT

The U.S. and the EU flags are seen side by side on Nov. 21, 2025, in Brussels, Belgium.
The U.S. and the EU flags are seen side by side on Nov. 21, 2025, in Brussels, Belgium.

(Thierry Monasse/Getty Images)

By replacing Russian gas with U.S. LNG, the European Union risks swapping a strategic dependence on Moscow for one on Washington -- a relationship that, though fundamentally different, would not be immune to the use of energy as a tool of political and economic leverage, and that could leave the bloc operating with tighter market buffers and greater price volatility through the end of the decade, even as diversification reduces single-supplier risk. On Jan. 26, EU energy ministers approved legislation to phase out imports of Russian pipeline gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) by the end of 2027. The phased ban will begin taking effect six weeks after it enters into force and tighten progressively through 2027, requiring companies to unwind existing agreements within defined timelines or face financial penalties. Spot imports of Russian gas and LNG will be prohibited six weeks after publication. Russian LNG imports under short-term contracts...

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