GRAPHICS

Striking Security Forces in Brazil

Feb 7, 2012 | 22:37 GMT

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(Stratfor)

An estimated 10,000 military police began a strike Feb. 1 in Brazil's Bahia state. The work stoppage has triggered an outburst of crime; 89 people have been murdered in the state capital since the strike began, despite the deployment of 3,500 federal troops to reinforce public safety. Bahia is one of three Brazilian states, along with Ceara and Rondonia, to see recent strikes by police forces over low salaries, dangerous working conditions and poor labor practices. State, civil and military police officers plan to go on strike Feb. 10 in Rio de Janeiro state if their demands are not met, according to the civil police union. The three groups argue that they earn the lowest wages among security personnel in the country — approximately half of what their counterparts in Brasilia earn. The strike is scheduled despite the fact that Rio de Janeiro state Gov. Sergio Cabral on Jan. 27 announced plans for a 39.4 percent salary increase over the next two years. According to Cabral, the raise will equal a 100 percent increase from 2007 wage levels by the time it is fully implemented in 2013. In a rejection of the offer, nearly 20,000 people attended a protest Jan. 29 organized by the groups. Security groups in Rio de Janeiro are hoping to use the Carnival season that begins Feb. 17 — as well as the upcoming World Cup and Olympics — to pressure the government into making concessions. Carnival attracted an estimated 4.5 million people to Rio de Janeiro in 2011, including 400,000 foreigners. Rio de Janeiro faces serious security challenges year-round, but such an influx of revelers heightens the threat posed by the city's vibrant criminal underground. Legally, only 70 percent of security forces in Rio de Janeiro can strike at any one time, leaving 30 percent to accomplish basic policing duties. But Carnival is a critical time for the city to increase — not diminish — its security presence. While the federal government may be able to contribute troops to help make up the shortfall, as the situation in Bahia shows, it is not certain that federal troops would be able to handle the situation.