ASSESSMENTS

How Sudan's Leadership Will Weather the Storm of Economic Protests

Jan 31, 2019 | 19:15 GMT

Supporters of President Omar al Bashir wave Sudanese flags during a rally for him at the Green Square in the capital Khartoum on Jan. 9, 2019.

Supporters of President Omar al Bashir wave Sudanese flags during a rally for him at the Green Square in the capital Khartoum on Jan. 9.

(ASHRAF SHAZLY/AFP/Getty Images)

Highlights

  • There are no easy solutions to Sudan's economic problems, and any financial assistance from allies will only paper over deeper structural issues.
  • The government has few options to deal with ongoing social unrest and is unwilling to pursue a negotiated settlement, meaning that harsh crackdowns will continue.
  • The protests, which began in December, are unlikely to end President Omar al Bashir's reign, but Khartoum's elites may pull support for the president's bid for re-election in 2020 and allow a successor to finally emerge.

Thirty years after seizing power in a military coup, Sudanese President Omar al Bashir is doing his best to avoid suffering the same fate as his predecessor. Public demonstrations that began Dec. 19 are now in their second month, and protesters are facing tear gas and live ammunition instead of negotiators. The very absence of meaningful dialogue between protest leaders and al Bashir's government indicates that the unrest will not end quickly or peacefully. The government in Khartoum has been heavy-handed historically when maintaining public order, but the stick doesn't appear to be working this time around. Neither, however, are economic promises, appeals to Islamist sentiments or attempts to exploit ethnic and religious differences. The protests have endured and have now grown into the most difficult civic challenge that al Bashir has yet faced....

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