Sudan, South Sudan: A Pipeline Attack Amid Oil Talks

Sudanese army officials said June 13 that rebel groups operating in the contested Abyei region between Sudan and South Sudan attacked a pipeline June 12 and caused an explosion. Khartoum claims that the Justice and Equality Movement was responsible for the attack. This attack and other recent events increase doubt that South Sudan and Sudan will reach a settlement on the security and pipeline agreements that Sudan threatened to nullify earlier in the week. South Sudan still has a financial interest in ensuring that oil exports are possible, but the final decision rests with Khartoum because it controls the pipelines South Sudan needs, and it is slightly less dependent on oil transport revenues.

Tension between the two African countries remains high but can be controlled through mediation and dialogue over the course of the next two months. However, an event like the pipeline attack could create a more volatile crisis in which another total pipeline shutdown cannot be ruled out. Sudan is more likely to exact further concessions from South Sudan on security issues while keeping the oil flowing, since shutting down the oil could enable South Sudan to find financing for an alternative pipeline.