The semi-autonomous Sudanese region of Southern Sudan on Jan. 9 will vote on whether to become an independent country. The vote is widely expected to pass, though an actual declaration of independence cannot legally be made until July as per a peace agreement reached in 2005. Though the country is proceeding toward a breakup, it is not likely to see a return to civil war; both sides will be compelled to cooperate — albeit acrimoniously — over their shared dependence on crude oil. The majority of the oil is in Southern Sudanese territory, but the pipeline-based means to export that oil is through the north, forcing both sides to negotiate a cooperative relationship as a means of securing a stake in the region's oil sector.
