The United Kingdom is preparing to leave the European Union. Mainstream political parties are breaking down across the Continent. Separatist movements are on the rise. Is Europe careening toward a cliff, or are these just bumps in the road to a more integrated Continental bloc?
Superforecasting can help us decide which is the more likely answer. With a combination of innate talent, training, teamwork and predictive aggregation, Superforecasting teams like Good Judgment have developed a unique approach to intelligence analysis that relies on quantitative forecasts of discrete events to predict a broader outcome. As Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner have explained to Stratfor readers, and in their best-selling book Superforecasting, using numerical probabilities helps boost the accuracy, accountability and clarity of assessments. By contrast, the slippery "vague verbiage" of terms like "could" and "might" can signal a frustratingly wide array of possible outcomes. According to Stratfor Vice President of Strategic Analysis...
