Superforecasting the Future of Europe

Feb 4, 2018 | 14:28 GMT

A string of electoral races and referendums over the past year has cast doubt on the future of European integration. But the prospects for Continental unity may not be as dim as the headlines make them out to be.

(John Thys/ Loic Venance/ Alberto Pizzoli/ Joel Saget/AFP/Jack Taylor/Getty Images)

The United Kingdom is preparing to leave the European Union. Mainstream political parties are breaking down across the Continent. Separatist movements are on the rise. Is Europe careening toward a cliff, or are these just bumps in the road to a more integrated Continental bloc? Superforecasting can help us decide which is the more likely answer. With a combination of innate talent, training, teamwork and predictive aggregation, Superforecasting teams like Good Judgment have developed a unique approach to intelligence analysis that relies on quantitative forecasts of discrete events to predict a broader outcome. As Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner have explained to Stratfor readers, and in their best-selling book Superforecasting, using numerical probabilities helps boost the accuracy, accountability and clarity of assessments. By contrast, the slippery "vague verbiage" of terms like "could" and "might" can signal a frustratingly wide array of possible outcomes. According to Stratfor Vice President of Strategic Analysis...

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