ASSESSMENTS

Surveying Turkish Influence in the Western Balkans

Sep 1, 2010 | 15:20 GMT

ELVIS BARUKCIC/AFP/Getty Images

Summary

Turkish President Abdullah Gul will visit Bosnia-Herzegovina from Sept. 2-3, amid rising tensions in the lead-up to Bosnian elections. Turkey has been able to use tensions among Bosnia-Herzegovina's ethnic groups to exert influence in the Western Balkans by acting as mediator. This is part of Turkey's plan to reassert itself geopolitically and show Europe that without Turkey, the Western Balkans will not see lasting political stability. However, Turkey's efforts face several obstacles, including a weak economic presence in the Western Balkans, suspicion inside the region about Ankara's motives, and growing concerns in the West about Turkey's power.

Turkey's ability to project power in the Balkans is constrained, but Ankara will continue working to gain influence in the region. (With STRATFOR maps)...

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