assessments

Syria: The Battle for Aleppo

3 MINS READJul 27, 2012 | 14:31 GMT
Syria: The Battle For Aleppo
BULENT KILIC/AFP/GettyImages
A Syrian rebel guards a checkpoint in the center of Aleppo on July 25
Summary

An unnamed security official in Syrian President Bashar al Assad's regime has said that the military will conduct an offensive against the northern city of Aleppo on July 27 or July 28 to dislodge rebel forces there. In anticipation of the offensive, the rebels are pouring into the city and readying their defenses. Regime troops have begun positioning themselves on the outskirts of the city, with Syrian special operations forces taking forward positions and tanks assuming defensive positions as they wait for reinforcements. Already the military is conducting artillery fire and airstrikes to soften the rebels' defenses ahead of the offensive.

The impending battle is a critical moment in the Syrian uprising. If the military wrests control of the city from the rebels, the regime will have demonstrated once again that it can drive rebels away from their positions, as it did recently in Damascus, if it dedicates enough of its forces to the task. However, the regime will be dealt a crushing blow if the rebels take control of the entire city — they claim to hold roughly 50 percent of Aleppo already — and stand firm against the military offensive. To prevent this from happening, the military may elect to level the city rather than leave it in the hands of the rebels. But as long as some rebels can escape safely and continue their insurgency as the regime continues to weaken, losing Aleppo would not be an irrecoverable loss for the rebellion.

Aleppo is important for several reasons. The largest city in Syria, Aleppo is culturally and historically significant because of its position on the Silk Road connecting Asia, Mesopotamia and Europe. The city is also a major economic hub that serves as Syria's commercial capital. Moreover, the wider Aleppo province is a major agricultural center that contributes a substantial portion of the country's food supply. Unsurprisingly, the rebels' steady encroachment on Aleppo has been one of the Syrian government's biggest concerns.

Battle for Aleppo

Battle for Aleppo

Until recently, most of the city's business elite, largely composed of members of the Sunni merchant class, did not openly espouse anti-government sentiment. However, civil strife has left them suffering economically over the past few months. After several rebel victories in the province, many Aleppo residents have become more vocal in their opposition of al Assad. For a rebel movement that mostly employs guerrilla tactics, support from a sympathetic local population is critical.

Deploying Forces

Rebels presently are erecting barricades and establishing defensive positions. The few armored vehicles they have are camouflaged and have been placed at critical intersections. While it is clear that the rebels intend to fiercely resist any Syrian offensive, they also understand that they must maintain an avenue of retreat if the battle turns against them. As an insurgent force, the rebels have benefited greatly from their ability to withdraw from battle and strike at other regime targets. Until recently, such tactics have forced the regime to spread its forces across the country.

But the Syrian military simply is not large enough to respond to every threat it faces simultaneously, forcing it to redeploy frequently. That it has been forced to transport its personnel around the country frequently only fatigues soldiers, burns fuel, creates maintenance problems for equipment and creates ambush opportunities for the rebels. The regime has also had to withdraw a number of its units from disparate areas across the country, including Zabadani, the Kurdish regions of northeastern Syria and even Idlib province.

In fact, the military withdrew its soldiers from Idlib province to reinforce the offensive on Aleppo. As these reinforcements drive toward Aleppo, rebels from Idlib province are trying to weaken and slow them down through ambushes and improvised explosive device attacks. Opposition activists and fighters reported that roughly one-third of a 23-vehicle convoy was destroyed in an ambush earlier this week as it left the Jebel az-Zawiya area for Aleppo.

With the departure of many military personnel, rebel forces in Idlib province are free to apply more pressure on regime-occupied Idlib city. More important, the withdrawal increases the likelihood that Aleppo could be cut off from the rest of the country. Indeed, if the rebels drive away the remaining regime troops from Maarat an-Numan and outlying areas, they will effectively cut off the M4/M5 highway to Aleppo city and Idlib city.

The rebels do not necessarily need the city as direly as the regime does. The rebels can afford to lose the fight for Aleppo, provided they are not completely encircled and eliminated. That is not to say the rebels do not value the city. With total control of Aleppo, the rebels could further erode the Syrian military's morale and encourage further defections. If they can repel the offensive, the rebels stand a good chance of winning the ongoing conflict in Syria. 

Connected Content

Regions & Countries

Article Search

Copyright © Stratfor Enterprises, LLC. All rights reserved.

Stratfor Worldview

OUR COMMITMENT

To empower members to confidently understand and navigate a continuously changing and complex global environment.

GET THE MOBILE APPGoogle Play