As Hezbollah and Syrian loyalist forces have stepped up an offensive in the Syrian city of Al-Qusayr to strengthen their grip on the vital Homs crossroads, it is no coincidence that the volatile district of Tripoli in northern Lebanon is also witnessing a flare-up between Alawites and Sunnis. Located in the Orontes River Valley, Al-Qusayr sits astride a supply route that is highly coveted by Syrian rebels and loyalists alike. Control over the city is critical to controlling the Syrian city of Homs, the vital crossroads linking Damascus to the Alawite-dominated coast and the Syrian city of Aleppo. The success of Hezbollah and loyalists so far in reducing Sunni resistance from Al-Qusayr is thus a major blow to the rebels. With backing from Salafists in Tripoli, Syrian rebels routed from Al-Qusayr could attempt to draw Hezbollah's attention away from the city by triggering sectarian clashes in Lebanon. As the group maintains its position in Al-Qusayr, it will devote its attention to securing the Lebanese approaches to the city. There are two main supply routes that run through northern Lebanon into Syria. One extends northward from Hezbollah's stronghold in the Bekaa Valley through Baalbek district and up to Al-Qusayr. Another, more tenuous route stretches eastward from the port of Tripoli along the main highway through Akkar and onward to Al-Qusayr. While Syrian loyalist forces focus on retaking the Syrian city of Talkhalakh just north of the Lebanese border, Hezbollah — with backing from Shiite fighters from the sizable al-Jaafar clan in the Lebanese district of Hermil — will try to concentrate their forces on Akroum, a Sunni village that sits on the route through Akkar district. The battle over these supply lines will drive the Syrian spillover of violence into Lebanon, particularly in the wake of rebel losses at Al-Qusayr.
