Syria: Options for Securing Chemical Weapons

Syria is believed to have one of the largest chemical weapons programs in the world. With the security situation in the country deteriorating and with the Bashar al Assad regime's hold on power loosening, there is a growing concern that the regime may use these weapons against the rebels. There is also concern that the weapons could fall into the hands of anti-Western militant organizations, such as Hezbollah, or jihadist groups, such as Jabha al-Nusra and Liwa al-Islam. While Syria has said it would not use chemical weapons against the rebels, Damascus has not ruled out deploying them against what it has called "external aggression."

Scant information is publicly available for Syria's chemical weapons program. However, Syria is not a signatory to the Chemical Weapons Convention, which outlaws the production, stockpiling and use of chemical weapons, and until July 23 the regime had not publicly admitted to possessing the weapons. Specifically, the al Assad regime is suspected of having VX, sarin, tabun and mustard gas, and it purportedly can produce a few hundred tons of chemical agents per year. Several major storage and production sites are believed to be located near Homs, Hama, Eastern Damascus, Aleppo, Latakia and Palmyra. An additional 45-50 smaller facilities are believed to be spread out across the country.

Ultimately, the regime is unlikely to deploy its chemical weapons; al Assad understands that using such weapons undoubtedly would invite foreign intervention. Therefore, the primary concern for the United States and its regional allies is whether militant groups will obtain the chemical weapons as security deteriorates at weapons storage facilities. This concern could drive the United States and its allies to intervene militarily in Syria to secure the weapons.