In Syria, a Possible Decision Point for Alawite Troops

A rumor is circulating in Lebanon that Hezbollah is recruiting specialized Syrian Alawite troops to leave Syria and join its organization. Meanwhile, Syrian rebel forces appear to be making tangible progress in their offensives against loyalist forces in the north around the city of Aleppo and in the south around Damascus. Though Alawite troops are well-equipped and dug in around the capital, they are outnumbered and facing an inevitable battle of attrition against an array of Sunni rebel groups.

At this stage of the conflict, Syria's remaining Alawite forces with the means to defect are each facing an existential choice: either stick with their fellow Alawites against growing odds in Syria or secure a personal exit strategy. Hezbollah's alleged poaching efforts suggest that individual interests may have begun to outweigh the collective interests of the Alawite and broader Shiite minority communities. Should specialized Alawite troops begin leaving for alternative careers in Lebanon, serious cracks in what is left of Syrian President Bashar al Assad's regime are likely to emerge, raising doubts about Alawite staying power in Damascus.