Syria: Renewed Aggression Exposes Cracks in the Rebellion

The long anticipated Qalamoun offensive is believed to have begun, with forces loyal to Bashar al Assad making a decisive move on the strategic town of Qara. A withering artillery bombardment commenced Nov. 16 and was followed by a coordinated tank and infantry attack. Although Qara remains in rebel hands for now, loyalist forces hold a dominant position around the town.

The mountainous Qalamoun region, bordering Lebanon and overlooking the critical M5 highway, remains highly problematic for the regime as it attempts to sustain a continuous and secure supply line from Damascus to the north. With a steady buildup of rebel forces in the area, rumors have persisted for months that the regime, with massive Hezbollah involvement, would launch a new offensive to drive back opposition in the area, potentially causing the largest spillover of violence into Lebanon since the start of the Syrian civil war.