Islamic State militants seized Tabqa air base in the Syrian province of Raqqa on Aug. 24. Tabqa air base was a major forward operating base for the regime that allowed it to carry out airstrikes at shorter range against Islamic State headquarters and facilities in the city of Raqqa. Forces loyal to the regime of Bashar al Assad managed to repulse three Islamic State attacks on the base during the preceding days before being overcome in a fourth assault. With the fall of Tabqa air base, the regime lost control of an entire province for the first time since the Syrian civil war began in 2011.
The fall of Tabqa air base is a serious military and symbolic loss for the regime. Government rhetoric in recent months repeatedly forecast the return of Raqqa to Damascus' control. The Tabqa air base was to be the staging ground for a broader regime offensive going deeper into the province. The regime also lost hundreds of troops in the battle for the air base, in addition to the losses it suffered during other recent seizures in the province. These personnel deficits and the expenditure of resources on ballistic missiles and airstrikes are a drain on the regime at a time when it had been seeking to pursue offensive operations in Aleppo while holding back the rebels in Idlib and Hama. The regime now has almost no presence in all of Raqqa province.
Having taken over Tabqa air base, the Islamic State is now in a position to deploy a considerable number of fighters elsewhere that had until now been tied up in Raqqa province. The militants have a number of options. They could swing east toward Deir al-Zour, deploy against Kurdish positions in the north or strike west against both rebel and regime positions. Whatever course they take, it is clear that the Islamic State remains a credible and dangerous threat to all sides in the Syrian civil war.
