ASSESSMENTS

Taiwan Enters a High-Stakes Campaign Season

Jun 14, 2019 | 21:22 GMT

Supporters of Han Kuo-yu show their enthusiasm for the populist mayor of Kaohsiung City during a campaign event in Taipei on June 1, 2019.

Supporters of Han Kuo-yu show their enthusiasm for the populist mayor of Kaohsiung City during a campaign event in Taipei on June 1. Han is one of several candidates competing to win the presidential nomination of the main opposition Kuomintang party.

(DANIEL SHIH/AFP/Getty Images)

Highlights

  • With presidential hopefuls holding divergent views over the government's relations with China, Taiwan's elections in January will have a deciding effect on cross-strait relations over the next four years and beyond.
  • Taiwan's ruling party and its presidential candidate, incumbent Tsai Ing-wen, will ramp up pro-independence narratives to muster public support ahead of next year's vote.
  • Beijing will be under pressure to respond to pro-independent narratives, and tensions around the Taiwan Strait will escalate in the coming months if Washington advances proposed arms sales, passes pro-Taiwan bills and elevates the level of official visits with Taipei.

Taiwan is preparing to enter a fierce campaign season as it looks ahead to presidential and legislative elections on Jan. 11, 2020, with the election results set to determine the dynamics of Taiwan's relations with China for years to come. Since the election of Tsai Ing-wen as president in 2016, the strait separating Taiwan from mainland China has become a center of tensions between China and the United States as Tsai and her government have pursued a pro-independent agenda, China has stepped up its efforts to militarily intimidate Taiwan, and the United States has increased its support for Taiwan. The increasingly precarious geopolitical situation guarantees high stakes for Taiwan's upcoming elections and makes familiar proxy battles between the island's pro-independent camp and those favoring stable ties with China even more apparent....

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