The offensive against Islamic State forces holding the Iraqi city of Tikrit in Saladin province is a crucial barometer for future operations. Instead of containing the city and then bypassing it to retake Mosul, military planners have decided to eliminate the Islamic State's presence there first. Aside from being the hometown of former Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, Tikrit is an important Sunni Arab stronghold on the highway linking Baghdad to Mosul.
The Iraqi army, recovering from its collapse last year, is receiving significant support from Iran, from rockets to intelligence and military advisers. A blocking position has been established to the west and the Iraqi army is making slow gains from the east and southeast, hampered by large numbers of improvised explosive devices along their axes of advances. Iraqi Golden Division special operations forces pushed into the northern city district March 6. Islamic State fighters have increasingly been forced to fall back to the interior but have made effective use of harassing fire. In an attempt to slow advancing forces and disrupt airstrikes from Iraqi fixed-wing aircraft and attack helicopters, the militants set fire to the Ajil oil field March 5, creating massive clouds of smoke.
Reports indicate that Iraqi attempts to lock down Tikrit have not been successful, and Islamic State fighters still possess limited freedom of movement. But sources on the ground claim that elements of the Islamic State leadership in Tikrit have already fled the city. Although it is unlikely that the Islamic State would relinquish its grip on Tikrit without extracting a cost on the attacking forces, the exodus of ground commanders could indicate that the city will fall. Additional reports, however, suggest that Islamic State forces have abandoned Qayyarah Air Base, south of Mosul, to free up reinforcements for Tikrit. This would indicate the militant group is prepared to stand its ground, or in the worst case, counter attack in force.
