ASSESSMENTS

Thailand Faces a Transition From Junta to Military-Favored Rule

May 20, 2019 | 09:00 GMT

This photo shows protesters opposed to the military junta's rule over Thailand during a demonstration disputing election results.

Anti-junta protesters in Bangkok dispute results of Thailand's first general election since a 2014 coup on March 31, 2019. Election results illustrated the divide in Thai politics between those supporting military leadership and those opposed to military control of the government.

(JEWEL SAMAD/AFP/Getty Images)

Highlights

Thailand appears poised for greater policy continuity given that parties linked to the outgoing military junta have a strong chance of forming a government.
This bodes well for massive junta-backed infrastructure initiatives, including China’s Belt and Road outlays in the country.
However, the political opposition will continue to jockey for control of the lower house, seek to disrupt legislation and may resort to street demonstrations if stifled.

The dust from Thailand's landmark election has largely settled, and the country's military junta, on the verge of handing the reins to popularly elected leaders, has emerged in an even stronger position than early returns suggested. The country's National Assembly will convene May 22, five years to the day when Gen. Prayuth Chan-ocha ordered the military to seize power and arrest the members of the civilian Cabinet. Since then, a military junta, with Prayuth serving as prime minister, and its allies in the monarchy have worked diligently not only to effect a royal transition but also to promulgate a constitution that limits civilian rule. With the rewrite, the military leaders are guarding against the potential return to power of forces loyal to the popular exiled politician Thaksin Shinawatra and his family, fearing a return to political chaos and its ripple effects on Thai stability. With a relatively strong position in the...

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