The Thai military's efforts to eradicate former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's political influence in Thailand have subdued his "Red Shirt" supporters, at least for now. Since taking power in a bloodless coup May 22, the junta has dismantled the opposition movement's leadership structure, disrupting its organizing capabilities and shutting off sources of funding, which will likely prevent the opposition from challenging the interim government in the immediate future. However, the Red Shirts will likely reconstitute themselves relatively quickly once the military eases the clampdown, and certain elements are capable of causing considerable chaos. If the military cannot divide, co-opt or contain the movement, it will be forced to tighten its hold on power, a development that would only galvanize the Red Shirt hard-liners, particularly if Thaksin chooses to escalate the fight.
Still, with more than a decade of practice challenging the Thai establishment, Thaksin's grassroots support base has developed into a loosely coordinated yet seasoned force with extensive mobilization experience, diversified leadership and sources of funding, deep institutional memory and an immeasurable amount of pent-up anger. The military's crackdown is unlikely to eliminate these intangible strengths, making it possible that the Red Shirt movement could arise again, particularly during the February-May dry season, when rural farmers would be able leave their fields.
Recently, former Pheu Thai chairman Charupong Rangsuan announced the creation of a nonviolent exile resistance organization consisting of a small number of exiled academics, activists and lawmakers, many of whom have been close with Thaksin in the past. Thaksin is not an official member, and the group says he is not a funder. But he has lent tacit support to the organization through his legal adviser, a Canadian lawyer who hosted a media event with another of the group's leaders, Jakrapob Penkair, in Hong Kong on June 25.
If Thaksin channels his efforts through the exile organization, it could help maintain the anti-coup momentum, focusing media attention on the junta's more draconian tactics, as well as lobbying foreign governments to maintain pressure on the junta. But the organization is unlikely to evolve into a "government-in-exile" as it has claimed it will. Although the West has condemned the coup, the group has yet to provide evidence to support its weak claims that Western countries are interested in hosting it. Thaksin's supporters are more likely to receive tacit support closer to home, particularly from Cambodia, which has long been a destination for fleeing Red Shirts and from where Thaksin has used his ties with Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen to challenge the Thai establishment. Still, because the opposition also wants to exploit foreign connections, and considering Phnom Penh's own long-standing concerns over the border, the Cambodian government's ability and desire to exploit the Red Shirt movements has weakened substantially.
