ASSESSMENTS

Thailand: Superficial Stability Veils Enduring Divides

Jul 12, 2014 | 11:12 GMT

Thailand: Superficial Stability Veils Enduring Divides
Thai soldiers lead away an alleged Red Shirt member ahead of a planned protest in Bangkok on May 25.

(Manan Vatsyayana/AFP/Getty Images)

Summary

The Thai military's efforts to eradicate former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's political influence in Thailand have subdued his "Red Shirt" supporters, at least for now. Since taking power in a bloodless coup May 22, the junta has dismantled the opposition movement's leadership structure, disrupting its organizing capabilities and shutting off sources of funding, which will likely prevent the opposition from challenging the interim government in the immediate future. However, the Red Shirts will likely reconstitute themselves relatively quickly once the military eases the clampdown, and certain elements are capable of causing considerable chaos. If the military cannot divide, co-opt or contain the movement, it will be forced to tighten its hold on power, a development that would only galvanize the Red Shirt hard-liners, particularly if Thaksin chooses to escalate the fight.

Bangkok's efforts to sideline the opposition since 2006 have only been minimally successful....

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