Thailand: Uncertainty, Unrest and Rumors of a Coup

As Thailand's opposition movement prepares to hold mass protests to "shut down" Bangkok on Jan. 13, the entire spectrum of royalist and establishment political forces seems to have hardened its position against the ruling Pheu Thai party and supporters of exiled former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and Yingluck, his sister and current prime minister. Most important, the Royal Thai Army has recently changed its tone in speaking about its willingness to stage a coup.

Anti-government forces have created a situation in which they can either interfere with upcoming elections or deprive Pheu Thai of the authority an electoral victory would typically bestow. Meanwhile, Pheu Thai faces the quandary of retaining power amid these procedural and legal challenges while also managing the upcoming protests without tarnishing its image with bloodshed or provoking the military to act on its warnings.