ASSESSMENTS

Is There Another Way Out of Venezuela's Crisis?

Jun 1, 2016 | 23:47 GMT

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro called for a "national rebellion" against alleged international threats during a rally in Caracas on May 31, after the Organization of American States called an emergency meeting to discuss Venezuela's future.

(JUAN BARRETO/AFP/Getty Images)

Summary

Venezuela faces a new dilemma, albeit a relatively tame one compared to its other crises. The Organization of American States (OAS) on June 1 held an urgent meeting to discuss the political situation in Venezuela. One day earlier, the organization's secretary general, Luis Almagro, said that Venezuela could be expelled from the body. This would require a vote on the subject of Venezuela's continued unconstitutional disruption of its democratic order — a violation of the organization's charter. Almagro was referring to the self-preservation strategy Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has chosen to deflect any political challenges from the opposition-controlled National Assembly. Maduro has selectively used the Supreme Court over the past six months to prevent the opposition from legally forcing his removal or weakening his powers.

While the expulsion of Venezuela from the OAS carries relatively remote risk to Venezuela, a declaration that President Nicolas Maduro's government is in violation of the organization's charter would deteriorate relations between the United States and Venezuela further. The decision could also make obtaining loans from international lending organizations, including the International Monetary Fund, Inter-American Development Bank or World Bank, even more problematic because of U.S. political pressure. But an option for the government is to find another way out of the crisis. A tentative dialogue involving the United States has begun in the Dominican Republic between representatives of the Venezuelan government and the opposition coalition, though it provides no guarantee that the government and opposition will inevitably reach some arrangement to coexist politically....

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