Timing the SPR Release

Crude production is stable or slipping throughout most of the world, and most of the countries that possess spare production capacity cannot translate it into quick exports. With a war in Iraq rapidly approaching, the case for tapping the United States' Strategic Petroleum Reserve is building. Tapping the SPR would pour oil on troubled waters, but the Bush administration is not likely to make the move until the shooting actually begins in Iraq. The result will be a spike in prices until the U.S. government can hammer them back down.