ASSESSMENTS

A Top Defector's Role in Syria After Al Assad

Jul 31, 2012 | 10:59 GMT

A Top Defector's Role in Syria After Al Assad  Read more: A Top Defector's Role in Syria After Al Assad | Stratfor
Defected Syrian Brig. Gen. Manaf Tlass with Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu on July 26

ADEM ALTAN/AFP/GettyImages

Summary

Over the past several days, defected Syrian Brig. Gen. Manaf Tlass has been tiptoeing into the media spotlight. Tlass has given a number of interviews and has met with senior officials in Turkey and Saudi Arabia, suggesting that Ankara, Riyadh, Washington and Paris are counting on the general to help steer Syria through the chaos that would follow the fall of the regime of Syrian President Bashar al Assad. Indeed, Tlass has the deep ties throughout Syria's military, security and intelligence apparatus that will likely prove to be necessary to help the country avoid institutional collapse.

However, Tlass' media offensive also highlights steep challenges inhibiting a future role for the general. Syria's fractured opposition views Tlass at best with suspicion due to the his family's historically close relationship with the al Assad clan, and a prominent role for Tlass in a future government would limit the level of regime change in the country. Still, even without a full endorsement from the Syrian opposition, Tlass is uniquely positioned to emerge as an important figure in Syria after al Assad.

Despite ties to the regime, a former Syrian general could help stabilize his country's future. ...

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