ASSESSMENTS

A Tortuous Path to Peace in Libya

Dec 19, 2016 | 09:15 GMT

A tank burns as clashes rage between the Libyan National Army, led by Field Marshal Khalifa Hifter, and jihadist militants.

A year after Libya's rival governments signed an agreement to unify, eventually leading to the creation of the Government of National Accord, Libya is more fragmented than ever, and clashes between warring militias continue around the country.

(ABDULLAH DOMA/AFP/Getty Images)

Forecast Bullets

Libya's internationally recognized government, the Government of National Accord, will continue to decline as it nears the end of its first year in power.
Despite their proximity in western Libya and their enduring rivalry, Field Marshal Khalifa Hifter's Libyan National Army and militias from the city of Misrata may opt to negotiate rather than resume fighting.
Prospective negotiations to form a government in Libya will need to accommodate the ambitions of both the Misratans and Hifter.

Libya is a country divided. A year ago, representatives from its rival governments -- the nationally recognized House of Representatives, based in Tobruk, and the General National Congress (GNC) in Tripoli -- signed a deal to unify as a single government. Though the deal, known as the Libyan Political Agreement, installed a new administration in Tripoli, today the country is more fragmented than ever. Instead of two rival governments, Libya now has three, and its internationally recognized leadership, the Government of National Accord, is losing ground. Yet as Libya's political turmoil has deepened, its economic and security circumstances have somewhat improved. Production of oil, the country's economic mainstay, is at its highest level in two years, thanks to the efforts of the Libyan National Army. In addition, militias from the city of Misrata in western Libya have managed to dislodge the Islamic State from its stronghold in Sirte. The two military...

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