Former U.N. Ambassador John Bolton leaves a meeting in Trump Tower in December 2016. Bolton's appointment to replace H.R. McMaster as national security adviser -- on the heels of Secretary of State Rex Tillerson's replacement with Mike Pompeo -- raises the threat of U.S. military action against North Korea and Iran alike.
Analyzing personality to predict policy is a limited endeavor. But the concentration of hawks and the winnowing of pragmatists in the White House have the effect of bending constraints and raising tolerance to risk on high-stakes issues. As a result, we must lay any baseline, constraint-laden forecast we make against the personalities charged with making fateful political decisions....
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