Assessments

Trump’s Exit Will Increase Turkey's Exposure to Sanctions

Emily Hawthorne
Middle East and North Africa Analyst, Stratfor
Nov 17, 2020 | 22:07 GMT
U.S. President Donald Trump (left) talks with his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Brussels, Belgium, on July 11, 2018.

U.S. President Donald Trump (left) talks with his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Brussels, Belgium, on July 11, 2018.

(TATYANA ZENKOVICH/AFP via Getty Images)

The next four years under U.S. President-elect Joe Biden will test how much further Turkey can strain its ties with NATO and pursue military operations at odds with U.S. interests without triggering sanctions. Turkey and the United States find mutual value in their economic and security ties. But Ankara’s determination to weaken its dependence on Western governments like Washington, while deepening its political, economic and security ties with Russia and China, often clashes with U.S. imperatives and goals. Despite this, the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump has largely shielded Ankara from sanctions proposed in Congress -- though that may shift once Biden takes office in January. The enactment of deep sanctions under Biden, however, would only compel Turkey to continue diversifying its ties away from the West by exacerbating its existing frustrations with the United States. ...

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