ASSESSMENTS

Turkey’s Gains in Libya Will Feed Hifter’s Fire

Apr 24, 2020 | 10:00 GMT

Fighters loyal to the U.N.-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) celebrate in Sabratha, Libya, after seizing the coastal city from Khalifa Hifter’s rebel troops on April 13, 2020. 

Fighters loyal to the U.N.-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) celebrate in Sabratha, Libya, after seizing the coastal city from Khalifa Hifter’s rebel troops on April 13, 2020. 

(MAHMUD TURKIA/AFP via Getty Images)

Highlights

  • Increased Turkish support has enabled Libya’s Government of National Accord (GNA) to make strategic advances against Khalifa Hifter’s rebel Libyan National Army (LNA) in the Tripolitania region. 
  • But even with Ankara’s added help, the GNA still lacks the capacity to project its forces deeper into LNA strongholds in eastern and southern Libya.
  • The fear of revealing large fractures in his support base, meanwhile, will also compel Hifter to continue his offensive on Tripoli. 
  • Turkey and the GNA’s recent gains will likely prompt Hifter’s foreign backers to increase their own support as well, continuing Libya’s civil war and the subsequent humanitarian crisis. 

Turkey’s investment into Libya’s Government of National Accord (GNA) may be paying off as the GNA and its allies have begun to make limited gains on the battlefield against Khalifa Hifter’s Libyan National Army (LNA). After securing full control along the coastal highway between Tripoli and Tunisia earlier this month, the GNA recently launched an offensive against the strategic town of Tarhuna, which is crucial for the Hifter’s supply chains to maintain his offensive on Tripoli. With Ankara’s help, the GNA will likely continue to have some success against Hifter’s allies. But by strengthening the resolve of his foreign backers, these advances will ultimately lead to an increase in the eastern leader and his army’s capabilities. Armed with added support from countries such as the United Arab Emirates and Egypt, Hifter will be well-positioned to continue his year-long offensive, prolonging Libya's civil war. ...

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