In Turkey, Syria Conflict Creates Political Pressure

The Syrian civil war has exposed the Turkish government to growing domestic political pressure. Ankara's attempts to maintain normal relations with its southern neighbor have invited criticism from Turkish political opposition groups, which accuse the government of supporting Syrian rebels, allowing violence to spill over the border and succumbing to increased attacks from Kurdish militants. There have even been reports of criticism within the ruling Justice and Development Party over Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's handling of the conflict, particularly his nonresponse to the downing of a Turkish fighter aircraft in June.

The criticisms come at an important time for Erdogan and the ruling party. So far, the Justice and Development Party appears to have maintained its popularity amid the criticism. But in the next three years, the ruling party will face three critical elections: municipal elections in 2013, the presidential election in 2014 and parliamentary elections in 2015. The party will also undergo a leadership transition in the run-up to the parliamentary elections. While Erdogan's political calculus has changed, the Syria conflict has presented the prime minister an opportunity to maintain his parliamentary coalition — which he needs if he is to achieve his political goals.