ASSESSMENTS

In Turkey, Trials May Shape Military's Future

Apr 23, 2012 | 12:32 GMT

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan (L), Finnish Prime Minister Jyrki Katainen and a Turkish honor guard in Ankara on April 18

ADEM ALTAN/AFP/Getty Images

Summary

Much has been said about Turkey's re-emergence as a regional power. With the collapse of the Warsaw Pact in 1991 and the diminished threat from Greece, its traditional regional rival, Turkey has markedly improved its security position and its armed forces capabilities. Indeed, significant upgrades in equipment and training have given Ankara some military flexibility in achieving its political objectives. However, there is little evidence that Turkey wants to use its newfound military power to back up its political rhetoric. 

Over the past year, several events have brought to light Turkey's military reticence. Ankara has not followed through on its repeated threats to militarily intervene in the Syrian uprising, and its naval posturing against Israel in the eastern Mediterranean Sea likewise has been without action. More important, Turkey has been unable to contain its Kurdish insurgency. But a less cursory examination shows that these struggles reflect political power struggles in Ankara rather than military ineptitude. If the military can survive this period of incertitude — seen most visibly by the arrests of hundreds of military officers — it may emerge stronger than it was before. 

The reasons for the Turkish military's perceived weakening have nothing to do with its own ineptitude....

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