Turkey will likely initially use diplomatic and political pressure to weaken Northern Cyprus's attempts to restart what are likely to be difficult federalization talks with the Republic of Cyprus. Should they nonetheless advance, an escalation to economic pressure could instead strengthen Northern Cyprus's drive for federalization in the coming years. On Oct. 19, the de facto Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus held a presidential election that resulted in the victory of Republican Turkish Party (CTP) head Tufan Erhurman, a center-left candidate who supports resuming federalization talks with the Greek-dominated Republic of Cyprus after a prolonged suspension of negotiations. Erhurman secured 62% of the vote, achieving a decisive victory over incumbent Ersin Tartar of the National Unity Party (UBP), who had rejected federalization talks and advocated for a two-state solution to the decades-long division of the island between Turkish and Greek Cypriots. Two days after the vote, Devlet Bahceli, a Nationalist...
