Conflicting reports out of Turkey suggest that Turkish authorities may have entered Syria on Aug. 20 to distribute humanitarian aid to Syrian refugees. It is unclear at this time if Syrian President Bashar al Assad's regime has the resources to respond to a Turkish move into its border areas, but if it does, its response will be predicated on Turkey's actions and whether it expands its support for the Syrian rebels. The Syrian regime does not want a war with Turkey, but it also must show that Turkey will be punished if it pushes too far. It is also not clear what Iran — al Assad's closest ally — will do. Turkey has accused both Syria and Iran of supporting the Kurdish militants that operate in southern Turkey and the border region Turkey shares with Syria, Iraq and Iran, and there could be a surge of attacks by the Kurdistan Workers' Party (commonly known by its Kurdish acronym, PKK) in Hatay province and other areas of Turkey. Ankara is also worried that the Kurdistan Regional Government in northern Iraq may fracture, which could erode the political and economic gains it has made there and add to its problems with Kurdish militancy. Ankara has tried to deal with the turmoil in Syria while staying out of the conflict. It has provided sanctuary for Free Syrian Army rebels and has looked to its allies in the Kurdistan Regional Government for help in containing the Kurds in northern Syria. If Ankara is expanding its involvement in Syria, it will do so in a measured fashion because it will be fearful of pushback from the Syrian regime and Iran via the Kurds. Turkey will also be looking for more regional support, especially from Israel.
